Is the technological singularity really coming?

The answer

The technological singularity - the hypothetical point where AI surpasses human intelligence and triggers runaway, irreversible technological growth - was popularized by mathematician Vernor Vinge in 1993 and by inventor Ray Kurzweil in his 2005 book 'The Singularity Is Near.' Kurzweil predicted it would arrive by 2045, and in his 2024 follow-up 'The Singularity Is Nearer,' he maintained that prediction, citing exponential trends in computing power. Critics like cognitive scientist Gary Marcus argue that scaling alone won't produce general intelligence and that fundamental breakthroughs in reasoning and world-modeling are still needed. Whether the singularity is inevitable, possible, or a myth depends heavily on unsettled questions about the nature of intelligence itself.